Market outlook: Mexican avocado exports and size differentiation in the USA.
ARTICLE
Mexican exports to the United States were consistent, with 1,250 shipments. The market again began to differentiate the price of .48 caliber and larger compared to .60 caliber and smaller, increasing the price difference per box between these calibers, primarily between .48 and .60 caliber.
Demand for large fruit has led exporters to maintain current harvest levels. However, at this time of year, most producers are focused on finishing the harvest and removing all the fruit from the trees, so the size curve is not expected to shift towards larger sizes. Nor is it likely to shift towards smaller sizes, as orchards at higher altitudes generally produce better-sized fruit. Overall, no significant change in the sizes that Mexico has been exporting is expected.
Mexican fruit inventories have remained stable and even decreased slightly toward the end of week 16. Inventories from other origins have continued to increase, primarily from California and, to a much lesser extent, Colombia. Buyers of Mexican fruit are maintaining their sales and supply levels, which has allowed the Mexican industry to keep up with harvesting and shipping.
There is general optimism that sales focused on the Cinco de Mayo promotions will help clear inventory with longer shelf lives and allow for some price and inventory stability. For Mexican exporters, the large price difference between the 48s and 60s is not the ideal scenario, so a reduction in that difference after these promotions is also desirable.
Sergio Paz Vega, Mexico
