Shipments from Mexico in week 15 totaled 1,179 truckloads. The volume of fruit exceeded market demand, leading to a significant increase in inventories and a drop in prices for both producers and retailers. The caliber that dropped the most was the 60, while the 48s and larger were a little more stable.

Daily demand for fruit was significantly lower than in the previous three weeks, but it is clear that exporters also had high inventories in their warehouses, as the reduction in the harvest was greater than the reduction in export volume. However, the Mexican industry expects market conditions to improve toward the second half of April, and therefore anticipates increased demand for fruit in week 16, primarily for sizes 48 and larger, which could once again be priced several dollars per box higher than sizes 60 and smaller, a situation similar to that experienced in January and part of February.

Producers in Mexico have not halted the harvest despite price adjustments. The weather in most producing areas is now typical of the hottest months of the year, April and May, which doesn't allow many producers to speculate on prices. The best description of the weather in Mexico's avocado-producing regions is hot and dry.

One situation to watch is the increase in California fruit inventory, which has been gradually rising, similar to what happened with Mexican fruit, where harvests have exceeded sales. California is not expected to slow its harvest; rather, the fruit should begin to move more quickly through the market.

Sergio Paz Vega, Mexico

sergio.paz@coliman.com