In week 51, Mexico exported 1,264 shipments of avocados to the United States market, a slightly lower quantity than the previous week, but generally consistent with the volumes seen in recent weeks. Trends remain largely unchanged; fruit harvesting continues as normal, and prices have generally remained stable, at least those offered by exporters to producers. Market prices remain very competitive, and the presence of fruit at what appears to be discounted prices continues to exert downward pressure. As has been the case in recent weeks, this pressure is also being exerted on certain sizes, which could change for the following week. In week 51, sizes 48 and 84 appeared to be under the most downward pressure.

According to data, Mexico has harvested 15% more fruit so far this season, but has harvested 17% fewer hectares. This gives an idea of the size of Mexico's harvest. However, it is not known how many of those hectares not harvested for the US market may have already been harvested for other markets, including the domestic market. This is despite the fact that the US market has not necessarily been the most attractive in recent months. The state of Michoacán has shown fewer hectares available for harvest each week compared to the previous season. This may reflect the mood of producers, who most likely have not requested to be considered for harvesting or have already harvested for other destinations. By week 51, there were 25% fewer hectares available in Michoacán compared to the same week last year.

This season's low prices should result in increased avocado consumption in the market. The United States has received 11% more fruit compared to last season, considering all origins, which offers some hope that the market may have better times ahead.

The challenges for the Mexican industry will be significant in the coming months. A complicated market with low prices could severely impact producers' profits, while exporters, caught between producers and importers, face virtually no margins. Adding to the challenges is the imminent negotiation of the free trade agreement with Canada and the United States, in which the California Avocado Commission has taken a belligerent stance. Mexico will undoubtedly respond with strong arguments, and this will be discussed in more detail later.

Sergio Paz Vega
General Manager Coliman Avocados
sergio.paz@coliman.com
Mexico