Mexico and the international avocado market: exports and prices increase in week 30
The Mexican avocado industry is preparing to begin supplying larger volumes of fruit to various markets. In week 30, 517 containers were shipped to the United States market, a similar amount to previous weeks. However, some changes are being observed that allow Mexican producers and exporters to be optimistic about the changes expected in the coming weeks.
Mexico continues to supply both fruit from the previous season and the new one, as expected week by week the percentages of "black" fruit are decreasing and those of "crazy" fruit are increasing, both in the harvests and in the shipments.
During the first 4 days of the week prices remained relatively stable and it was towards the weekend that the market began to react and orders were received, which caused an almost instantaneous increase in field prices.
By week 31, the number of hectares available for harvest in the United States remains significantly lower than in previous seasons, averaging 50% fewer hectares than at the same time last year. The effectiveness of dry matter assessment in the field remains a question mark, particularly regarding the results obtained so far and its impact on the reduction of orchards available for harvest. It was also observed that companies that had been handling very small volumes or not exporting at all for several weeks resumed operations, generating greater demand for fruit in the field. Fewer hectares available with more companies seeking fruit is what will drive higher prices.
Importers in other countries have begun contacting Mexican exporters requesting the first quotes of the season, as is the case in Japan, China, and Europe. The Canadian market, which had also been largely stagnant, could begin to recover. The shift in fruit types in the domestic market will have a significant impact on the price of non-USDA certified fruit, which is the type used for these export markets. The domestic market typically does not react well to this change, which could lead to lower farmgate prices and, consequently, greater competitiveness for Mexican fruit.
Rainfall remains abundant, which is excellent for the season's fruit, allowing it to grow larger. Producers are undoubtedly pleased with this rainy season, at least so far. However, the performance of Mexican fruit destined for export with longer transit times will need to be evaluated.
Sergio Paz Vega
Mexico
