Mexico exported 1,189 shipments of avocados to the United States market during week twelve. Demand for Mexican fruit remained consistent, and had it not been for the holiday on Monday, March 17, an even larger volume would have been exported. At least until this week, there were no signs of weakness in the market; except for size 48, all sizes were in demand, with reported reductions in inventories. Size 48, the most commercially important size, experienced some uncertainty during a few days, but by the weekend, shipments were moving smoothly.

Demand for smaller sizes, mainly size 70, continued to dominate the harvests. Retailers who shifted their sales to this size still require this size primarily packaged in RPCs (reusable plastic boxes) that are displayed directly in stores.

Farmgate prices remained stable, and the demand for smaller fruit was met by the abundant availability of fruit in the fields. As previously mentioned, Mexico's production this season has a higher percentage of smaller sizes compared to typical seasons, where size 48 is the most common. If the demand for smaller fruit continues and sizes 60 and larger continue to sell well, Mexico should have no problem supplying the market with adequate volumes, thus promoting greater market stability.

As April 2nd approaches, uncertainty is growing regarding the implementation of tariffs on Mexican products. The situation is beginning to resemble that of a month ago, although it is important to note that both exporters and importers will now be better prepared to react should these tariffs actually be implemented.

The domestic market has reacted with higher prices, creating real competition for smaller sizes. Prices in this market have increased by more than 70% in the last four weeks. This increase is an annual trend during the weeks leading up to Easter, which this year will be from April 13th to 19th.

The weather is definitely becoming another factor influencing producers' decisions to harvest or hold onto their stocks. Daytime temperatures are already high, which is normal for this time of year. It's now common for some fruit to arrive at packing plants already showing signs of ripening or dehydration, requiring easy sorting on the packing lines. At this time of year, Mexican fruit typically has a dry matter content of over 31-32%, making proper cold chain management throughout the distribution chain crucial.

Sergio Paz Vega, Mexico, sergio.paz@coliman.com