Mexico: Market Comments Week 13
In week 13, export volume expectations were exceeded. It was originally speculated that Mexico would send around 800 shipments to the United States market, but the final volume was 1,077. As mentioned previously, fruit was harvested only between Monday and Wednesday, and the last shipments were dispatched on Thursday before 2:00 p.m. During the three days, more than 1,300 daily crews were scheduled to harvest.
This volume clearly caused reported inventories to increase significantly, generating market nervousness at the start of week 14. Prices offered to producers generally remained stable during the three harvest days, including Monday and Tuesday of week 14. However, it is unlikely that these prices will hold for the rest of the week; lower prices for producers are undoubtedly expected. The biggest question is how far the price drop will be and how long it will last.
The truth is that fruit availability in Mexico isn't going to increase in the coming weeks; on the contrary, each week we'll have fewer orchards available for harvest, and this is a normal trend. Another period of high demand is expected toward the end of April to supply the Cinco de Mayo promotions, which will be on a Sunday. This month, Mexico will continue to have a very dominant market share, so it will be the responsibility of all those involved—producers, exporters, and importers—to properly manage harvests, shipments, and inventories to achieve the best results for the industry.
The above may begin to change in other markets. In Japan and other Asian countries, it appears that demand for Mexican fruit will decrease to make way for fruit from Peru. In Canada, demand for Mexican fruit has remained constant, and the market has reacted similarly to the United States, accepting the price increases of recent weeks. Regardless of price, Mexican fruit currently has a significant advantage in quality due to its higher oil content at this time of year.
Sergio Paz Vega
