Mexico: Market Comments Week 12
Despite the shortened week 12 due to the holiday on Monday the 18th, Mexican exporters demanded a large volume of fruit, and harvesting continued almost daily from Tuesday the 19th onward at a pace similar to peak weeks of the year (Super Bowl and Cinco de Mayo). The volume of fruit exported to the United States exceeded 1,360 truckloads, a significant amount for a week of only five business days.
Field prices gradually increased throughout the week, and the market responded to the rise with sufficient demand across virtually all sizes, with sizes 60s and smaller being particularly in demand. One factor to monitor is the gradually decreasing availability of orchards within the SICOA system, coupled with the significant reduction in harvests in the state of Jalisco. This puts additional pressure on the demand for fruit from Michoacán, which is steadily increasing its market share, along with demand from other markets, primarily Canada and Japan.
The fruit supply will continue to be affected by Holy Week (March 25-30). It is confirmed that harvesting will only take place from Monday to Wednesday, and trucks can only be loaded until 2:00 PM on Thursday, with operations resuming on Monday, April 1. Reported inventories had remained relatively stable until Friday, March 22. It could be assumed that demand for fruit in the final markets has not allowed for the accumulation of inventories that would compensate for the lack of harvest expected in week 13, at least not until last weekend. It is expected that larger inventories will begin to appear at some point during week 13, which would be a normal situation.
One figure to consider is what the Mexican industry will be able to ship over the next two weeks, weeks 12 and 13. Assuming shipments of around 800 trucks during Holy Week, that would total 2,160 for two weeks, which doesn't seem like a particularly large amount—1,080 per week. This volume is quite normal for this time of year. There don't appear to be any conditions that would suggest a price drop during the first week of April. The amount of fruit remaining at packing plants in Mexico over the long weekend and the possibility of shipping fruit during the first days of week 14 could be a very good indicator of the price trend offered to producers for the first two weeks of April.
Sergio Paz Vega
