In week 17, Mexico exported 972 shipments of avocados to the United States market. This volume may have been higher than the market was able to absorb to maintain price stability. Although farmgate prices showed a clear downward trend, exporters continued to pay higher prices than those heard in the market, primarily for sizes 36, 40, and 60. It's worth noting that the availability of size 60 avocados this season is at least 8-10% higher than what is typically available for Mexican fruit. This percentage might not seem significant, but multiplied by tonnage and shipments, it represents a considerable amount of fruit.

On the other hand, some exporters handling fruit from various origins seem to have made a deliberate effort to keep their field prices high to prevent the market from collapsing and significantly impacting California fruit prices or the upcoming negotiations for programs involving fruit primarily from Peru and Colombia. This last point is entirely my personal observation.

The truth is that reported inventories remain above what could be considered a healthy level. Mexico continues to ship a significant volume of fruit, California appears to be operating at full capacity and will continue to do so, and increasing volumes from Peru and Colombia are expected to arrive imminently. Although the fruit is not yet physically on the market, it is already being quoted with slight to very significant price differences compared to current Mexican and Californian fruit prices, something that was anticipated.

Mexican producers must accept that the period of highest prices is over, and starting this week they must focus on selling their fruit. Producers from other countries will dominate the retail programs, and Mexico's main advantage will be in the open market, where fruit from Colombia and Peru has not performed well in terms of either price or quality.

As mentioned in previous weeks, we are entering an unprecedented phase for the US market, with significant volumes arriving from at least four different origins. While the Mexican industry is known for defending and attempting to command higher prices for its product, it has also performed well in past periods of competition and low prices, and that is what we will likely see in the coming weeks and months.

Let's see how things work out, this is just the beginning.

Sergio Paz Vega, General Manager, Coliman Avocados, sergio.paz@coliman.com , Mexico