In week 15, Mexico exported 988 containers to the United States market. The market experienced significant inconsistencies in fruit demand, with two distinct situations: importers who filled their warehouses with fruit anticipating the implementation of tariffs, which ultimately did not materialize, leaving them with unused fruit and resulting in a market saturated with discounted prices, particularly for size 60 fruit. On the other hand, importers adopted a more conservative approach, requesting fresh fruit from exporters at more consistent prices.

This also caused producer purchase prices to trend downward, though not as low as the market actually required to maintain significant volumes and prevent inventory buildup. Overall, demand was lower than supply, and Mexican exporters were cautious about harvesting volume, even though they anticipated needing to harvest more fruit due to the approaching Holy Week in Mexico, during which there would only be three days of harvesting and four days of shipping.

Reviewing inventory figures at the close of week fifteen and the beginning of week sixteen, no potential fruit shortages are anticipated due to reduced harvests in Mexico. California has significantly increased its harvests and, consequently, its inventories, which, combined with existing Mexican fruit stocks, guarantee an adequate supply for the coming days. It can even be anticipated that no strong demand for Mexican fruit is expected after Easter or during week seventeen.

Mexican producers are speculating about high prices at the end of the season or based on the anticipated strong demand for Cinco de Mayo promotions. However, there is more than enough supply from both origins to anticipate that this high demand will not be as significant, and the market, at best, will remain stable, if not experience some downward pressure on prices. The possibility for Mexican producers to speculate in the hope of obtaining higher prices is increasingly diminishing given the imminent growth of the California harvest and the eventual entry of fruit from Peru and Colombia. Each season has been different, but with certain similar trends. 2025 will be unprecedented due to the simultaneous market participation of large producers with significant avocado volumes, and especially because buyers will be able to choose not only between companies but also between origins to find the best purchasing conditions for their businesses. Each producing country will have to adapt its commercial strategies to guarantee its market share in the coming months.

Sergio Paz Vega, General Manager, Coliman Avocados, sergio.paz@coliman.com , Mexico