Mexican avocado industry: reduced harvest and sales expectations
It will be important for both importers and exporters to assess the quantity and type of inventory remaining in warehouses at the start of week 19. If demand is moderate to strong, exporters will likely seek to increase their volume, which will most likely result in higher prices. Conversely, if demand is moderate, stable fruit prices should be expected. Regarding the type of inventory, the focus is on determining which sizes and shelf lives will remain.
No reduction in volumes from other origins should be expected in the coming weeks; on the contrary, an increase in shipments from Peru could be anticipated. Given the drop in prices in Europe, Peruvian producers may begin to see the United States market as an alternative to divert their fruit surplus. Ideally, the Mexican industry should react by maintaining a consistent supply and securing its market share for the coming weeks, through the end of the current season and into the beginning of the next.
On the production front in Mexico, two factors will be relevant in the coming weeks. The first is the weather, as no significant rainfall is expected, even though May 15th marks the start of hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean. This directly affects producers who continue to keep the fruit on stressed trees, a relatively normal situation for this time of year.
The second will be the start of the new season's fruit harvest, which could apparently begin during May or June at the latest, provided that the fruit has reached a minimum of 24% dry matter in the first sampling carried out by the municipal plant health boards; we will see how accurately this procedure is applied.
Sergio Paz Vega
Mexico
