Expectations and challenges in the US market for Mexico
Mexico's volume remained at the same levels as in recent weeks, with 1,214 shipments exported to the United States. Harvesting in week 17 began at a rapid pace, which slowed toward the end of the week when several importers began signaling a surplus of fruit and discounted prices started appearing. Consequently, prices offered to producers also tended to decrease.
By the end of week 17, it was expected that most of the fruit required to cover orders or promotions for May 5th was already in warehouses at the destination or in transit, so the harvests from the weekend or the beginning of week 18 could not be used for these sales but for what was required after the strong promotions of that weekend.Producers, exporters, and importers will all be watching closely to see the actual volumes moved during week 18. This should be the main indicator of demand and, therefore, price for the coming days. Overall, the industry expects a significant rebound in demand and prices for Mexican fruit toward the second half of May. However, it remains clear that Mexican fruit inventories have remained at the same levels for several days, while those from other origins have increased more significantly.
Some participants have commented that the volume shipped by May 5th was lower than in previous years, but statistics indicate that April 2024 will be the year with the highest volume received by the US market for that month. While it's true that Mexico hasn't shipped the most volume for April, adding the fruit from California, Peru, and Colombia will bring the total to over 118,000 tons received in the market during the month, a record high by a few tons compared to 2023. Mexico will fall just over 4,000 tons short of the volume exported in 2023.
High temperatures and lack of soil moisture will continue to be factors that many growers will consider when deciding on their harvest strategy for the end of the Mexican season. The trees' capacity to retain fruit in several producing regions is already reaching its limit, especially in orchards without irrigation.
Sergio Paz Vega, Mexico
