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The gap left by Mexico's reduced participation in the US market

The trend in the Mexican fruit market behaved as anticipated in week 23: higher prices and increased competition among exporters vying for fruit, while producers who still have stock are taking advantage of the situation to secure better deals. Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.

Mexico exported 765 containers to the United States and has experienced a significant reduction in its market share. At the end of week 23, it held approximately two-thirds of the market. Many of the programs offered by retail chains are now being fulfilled, to a greater or lesser extent, by fruit from other origins, and Mexican fruit is increasingly concentrated in the open market.

However, it remains very evident that the turnover of Mexican fruit inventories is much faster than that of other origins. This may be due to the natural effect of the fruit's shorter shelf life, or it may be because it continues to be the preferred fruit of certain market sectors and Mexican fruit importers continue to do a good job in distribution. I am inclined to think that the second argument is the most viable explanation.

Prices offered to producers are expected to continue rising gradually. Some companies are seeking to purchase larger volumes and are driving up the market price by offering up to $5.00-$6.00 pesos per kilo above the average price of other exporters. This strategy, applied to the small number of producers who still have fruit to harvest, is generating a much faster response than at other times of the season.

The Mexican peso has weakened against the US dollar, providing some relief to exporters whose results have been affected in recent months by the strength of the Mexican peso, not only avocado exporters but the entire Mexican export sector.

Regarding the start of the new fruit harvest ("loca"), there's no further news. The Plant Health Boards will be responsible for conducting our inspections and will implement the parameters and conditions that the fruit must meet for orchards to be considered for harvest—a process that seems to be significantly delayed. Outside of Jalisco, there's no reason to believe, as of today, that the harvest in Michoacán will begin earlier than in previous years…unfortunately!

Sergio Paz Vega

Mexico

sergio.paz@coliman.com

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