Although the main avocado-producing and exporting countries are mostly in Latin America, and the major consumer markets are concentrated in North America and Europe, the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are having a tangible impact on the industry. This is not due to geographical proximity, but rather to the global and interdependent nature of international maritime transport.

The global trade in fresh fruit—and particularly avocados—depends on highly synchronized logistics chains. When a strategic shipping region becomes unstable, the impact is not localized: it ripples through the entire system, disrupting costs, times, and capacity availability even on routes that do not directly cross the affected area.

Maritime costs under pressure 

One of the first observable effects is seen in the operational costs of maritime transport. Tensions in areas near key energy corridors have driven up oil prices, increasing the cost of bunker fuel used by shipping companies. At the same time, marine insurance premiums are rising due to the increased perceived risk, incorporating additional surcharges associated with navigating in sensitive areas.

For refrigerated cargo, these increases have a proportionally greater impact. Reefer transport requires higher energy consumption, continuous monitoring, and specialized equipment, so any increase in operating costs is quickly passed on to freight rates.

Shipping companies adjust the world maritime map

Major shipping lines—including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd—have already implemented concrete measures to reduce operational risks. Route diversions, omitted port calls, and service reorganizations are part of a strategy designed to safeguard operational continuity and the safety of crews and assets. 

However, these decisions generate structural consequences that transcend the routes directly affected. 

The cascading effect: fewer ships available without reducing the fleet

The most significant impact on agricultural exports stems from the so-called cascade effect on vessel availability. When ships must use less efficient routes—for example, longer journeys to avoid risk zones—transit times increase significantly.

An increase of 10 to 15 days in a maritime rotation means that each ship completes fewer voyages per year. In practical terms, the system loses effective capacity without a decrease in the physical number of ships.

This lower productivity forces shipping companies to redistribute their fleets towards strategic services, reducing frequencies or adjusting itineraries in secondary or seasonal markets. South America, highly dependent on agricultural cycles, usually absorbs some of these adjustments.

For avocado exporters, the result is tangible: less space availability, greater advance notice required for reservations, and increasing volatility in logistics programs.

The second critical impact: shortage of reefer containers

 Even more critical for the fruit industry is the effect on the global availability of refrigerated containers.

The reefer system operates under a delicate balance of repositioning. Containers must circulate continuously between import and export zones to sustain agricultural seasons. When ships are delayed or their itineraries are altered, the equipment remains out of service for longer periods, delaying its return to the ports of origin.

This phenomenon creates regional imbalances: an accumulation of containers in some destinations and shortages in producing areas precisely during periods of high demand. For avocados—a product highly dependent on specific marketing windows—this situation can translate into tariff increases, difficulties in securing equipment, and even lost business opportunities.

A new operating environment for agricultural exports

The conflict in the Middle East demonstrates that, in modern maritime trade, geographical distance no longer determines economic impact. Disruptions at critical points in the system affect the overall efficiency of transport and redefine the conditions under which exports are planned. 

In this context, the avocado industry faces an environment where logistical resilience, advance planning, and service diversification will be as relevant as agricultural productivity. Maritime logistics is thus once again positioned not only as an operational risk but also as a potential source of competitive advantage for those who can adapt most quickly to the new global landscape.

Jorge Rosés W.
International Sales Manager
Seemann Trader
jroses@seemanngroup.com