Over the past three decades, the supply of avocados destined for industrial processing—primarily for the production of guacamole and frozen pulp—has undergone substantial transformations. Factors such as the opening of the US market, increased global consumption, the entry of new producing countries, and the growth of derivative segments, such as avocado oil, have redefined the availability, cost, and quality of the raw material.

Background

In the early 1990s, when I began my professional career in the sector—where I have remained for over 35 years—access to raw materials was relatively easy. While infrastructure, capital, and basic post-harvest handling were required, fruit collection did not represent a significant obstacle for the processing industry.

In Michoacán, the world's leading avocado-producing region, the first industrial avocado processing plant was established in Uruapan in 1990. Within a few months, at least two additional facilities sprang up in the area. Simultaneously, similar initiatives were underway along the border between Mexico and the United States, as well as in California. By the mid-1990s, five or six regionally significant plants were operating, all focused on export, with minimal sales in the Mexican market.

Availability and costs in the first stage

During that period, supply far exceeded demand, with abundant, high-quality fruit at low cost. It was even possible to acquire volumes that are currently reserved exclusively for fresh export, based on size and quality criteria.

The purchase price for processing then ranged between MXN 0.80 and MXN 1.50 per kilogram, with an exchange rate close to MXN 35 per dollar. In current terms, that value would be approximately USD 2.10 per dollar equivalent.

One of the determining factors for this availability was the absence of fresh avocado exports to the United States. That market only opened in 1997, and then only to 19 low-consumption states. Mexico was already exporting to Europe—mainly to France—but in modest volumes compared to current levels. The opening of trade with the United States marked a turning point for the entire production chain.

Growth in consumption and international expansion

Per capita consumption in Mexico in the early 1990s was estimated at approximately 5 kg per year (without an official figure). By 2024, domestic consumption had reached around 11 kg per person, one of the highest in the world. The increase in the United States and other international markets has been even more rapid, with exports approaching 1.3 million tons, according to figures from the Avocado Exporters Association.

In the mid-nineties, there were few processing plants in Michoacán and virtually none outside the state or the country. Over time, new industrial origins were incorporated: the United States, Chile, South Africa, Peru, Guatemala, Colombia—which in recent years has shown remarkable performance—, Spain, and Israel, among others.

Current complexity of stockpiling

In the current context of the Mexican guacamole and avocado pulp industry, raw material procurement has become one of the main challenges. Factors contributing to this complexity include:

• The high volume of fresh fruit exports.
• The increase in domestic consumption, one of the highest in the world.
• The presence of multinational companies with ample financial capacity and higher purchase prices.
• The capture of large volumes by these companies, to the detriment of local processors.

Seasonality is also a determining factor: although availability exists year-round, the period between September and February offers the best price-quality-volume ratio for industrial processing. This limits international negotiations that seek annualized prices.

Competition in the avocado oil sector

An additional factor is the rapid growth of the avocado oil industry. Its expansion has generated a demand capable of competing for the same resource. Initially, this segment acquired fruit discarded by the guacamole industry—bruised, overripe, small, or with low dry matter content—generally at minimal cost. Currently, however, it competes directly for the raw material, with prices comparable to those of avocados for processing.

For traditional suppliers, oil represents an attractive alternative due to less stringent quality and safety requirements, as well as the possibility of placing their entire production without the risk of returns, something common in the industrial process of guacamole.

Conclusions

Avocado harvesting, which three decades ago was a simple and low-cost process, has become one of the main challenges for the processing industry. The historically resilient production chain must develop strategies to ensure a competitive supply in an environment marked by increased consumption, greater industrial specialization, and increasingly intense international competition.

Eng. Jorge Alberto León Llanderal
Technical Consultant specializing in Food Technology