September reflected the typical behavior of the Chinese market: when stocks run out, prices skyrocket; as supply increases, demand subsides. The month began with a rebound (S35) after the liquidation of August inventories, followed by a week of high prices and cautious sales (S36). Competition from various origins (Peru, Chile, and China) then emerged, driving prices to their peak for the month (S37). The month ended with stable prices, slower sales, and adjustments due to the ripening of the pulp in Chilean and local avocados (S38– S39).

Monthly development (by week):

• Week 35 - The rebound after the cleanup: After removing the stock, the market reacted quickly: The 4 kg box rose from 30 to 120 RMB in the same week. The 10 kg box went from 80 to 240 RMB near the close. 36 containers were shipped from Peru.

• Week 36 - High prices, cautious market: Market with no inventory, evident shortage: 4 kg boxes sold for 100-130 RMB. 10 kg boxes sold for 270-280 RMB. The recent price increase slowed sales, but the limited supply kept prices up. Meanwhile, the local Chinese harvest was preparing to begin (first arrivals in 7 days). 11 containers left Peru.

• Week 37 - Diverse Market (Peru–Chile–China): The first shipments from China and batches from Chile and Peru arrived. Chile led the prices: 4 kg up to 140 RMB and 10 kg up to 300 RMB. Premium Peruvian avocados sold for approximately 10% less than Chilean avocados. No containers were shipped from Peru.

• Week 38 - Apparent stability, slow sales: Prices similar to Week 37, but sales decreased. A lack of dry matter was noted in Chilean and local Chinese avocados, which reduced turnover. 12 containers were shipped from Peru.

• Week 39 — Stable close with slight adjustment in the 4 kg box. Stable market; 4 kg box drops slightly: premium up to 120 RMB. 10 kg boxes remained stable at RMB 270–280.

In summary: the 10 kg held up well in terms of price and demand; the 4 kg top adjusted a bit.

Key points for operating in September:

1) Clearing stock is what drives the price.

The surge in S35 sales showed that old stock is the biggest problem for sales. Removing that stock led to increases in sales of the 4 kg and 10 kg sizes.

2) The 10 kg format was the star performer. It withstood high prices even with weaker sales (S38–S39).

3) Chilean appeal and the power of brand image. At the start of its campaign, Chile set the price standard thanks to its quality and customer trust; Peruvian premium fruit held its own with a temporary price reduction (~10%). However, at the beginning of the campaign, some Chilean fruit was perceived as having low dry matter content, slowing sales.

4) Pulp quality dictates the rotation. Lack of maturity in some lots (S38) slowed sales despite stable prices. RTE (Return on Time of Harvest) and uniform ripening matter more than the origin itself.

In summary, September showed a market attentive to stock levels and pulp quality, with the 10 kg format acting as a value benchmark and the 4 kg format performing well with branding and ready-to-eat options. The arrival of the Chinese harvest and Chile's advantage set the tone in the middle of the month; the end brought stability with minor adjustments in the 4 kg format. In the short term, ripening, proper logistics, and blend consistency will continue to be the differentiating factor between those who protect their margins and those who do not.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com