Evolution of the Hass avocado market (presentations 4 kg cal. 20/22 and 10 kg cal. 26/28)

The Chinese Hass avocado market navigated a delicate balance in October: mostly stable prices with a downward bias, a moderate premium for Chilean origin, and increasing pressure from local supply that constrained turnover. The 10 kg format once again acted as a value anchor, while the 4 kg format became more vulnerable to the influx of new volumes and the sensitivity of demand.

A month of stability with occasional adjustments

The initial phase (weeks 39–40) showed continuity: 4 kg boxes remained at RMB 100–120, with softer ceilings around 120, and 10 kg boxes held steady at RMB 270–280. Limited availability led to a rebound at the end of week 41, when 4 kg boxes reached RMB 140 and 10 kg boxes RMB 330, driven by container clearing in the Asia warehouse . However, the expectation of a greater presence of local Chinese fruit opened the door to slight corrections in the following weeks.

Week 42 confirmed a three-way market: local, Chilean, and Peruvian. Increased sales of local fruit led to congestion and even halted harvesting in the fields. Chilean fruit increased its presence almost daily, setting benchmarks at RMB 140 (4 kg) and RMB 330–340 (10 kg). Peruvian fruit, with generally good quality, was priced only 5–6% below Chilean fruit, a significantly smaller gap than the historical average (15–20%).

Around week 43, the increased presence of local and Chilean fruit put downward pressure on prices. The 4 kg package traded between RMB 100–120, and the 10 kg package remained at RMB 280–290. The end of the month (week 44) consolidated stability with a slight softening: RMB 100–110 for 4 kg and around RMB 250 for 10 kg, with Chilean fruit slightly higher in both formats.

Differences by origin and format

Moderate Chilean premium. Chile led the market during periods of lowest stock (S41–S42), especially in the 10 kg category, maintaining a slight premium over Peru and China. Peruvian quality remained very competitive, narrowing the gap to 5–6%. Local supply contributed volume, but with uneven pulp maturity in some lots, slowing sales and contributing to bottlenecks.

10 kg as a shock absorber. The 10 kg format showed greater resilience in multi-origin competition scenarios, with sustained demand from

foodservice and wholesale, and a later drop compared to the 4 kg. Its ability to “absorb” variability of origin and maturity consolidated it as a value pillar of the month.

The 4 kg package was sensitive to the mix. It reacted strongly to lower availability (S41 peaks), but quickly yielded to increased local and Chilean supply. In October, brand, smooth skin, and RTE consistency were necessary to maintain RMB 110–120; without this comprehensive offering, the product was subject to discounts.

Logistics and flows: the timing factor

Peruvian shipments were limited and highly uneven: 11 containers (S39), 8 (S40), 3 (S41), 0 (S42), followed by a rebound in S43 (29) and S44 (17). The periods with lower shipment volumes coincided with better display screens; the return of Peruvian volume occurred in a context of increased competition and softer prices. Shipment timing was once again crucial for capturing margin.

Key readings of the month

• Inventory and maturity define the rotation. The influx of local fruit with suboptimal pulp slowed sales; the market rewarded lots with uniform ripening and RTE programs.
• With Peru competitive, the Peru-Chile gap narrowed to 5-6% due to Peru's good condition, although Chile maintained the price ceiling when stock was just right.
• 10 kg holds the value. Better relative performance and less friction in sales; RMB 270–290 for much of the month, and RMB 250 towards the close.
• 4 kg, selective. Requires a complete proposal (brand + smooth leather + RTE) to defend levels; with local supply growing, buyer selectivity increases.

Immediate perspective

Looking ahead to November, the key will be the expansion of the local window—if ripeness improves, it will put pressure on the 4 kg price—the frequency of Chilean arrivals, and the disciplined blending of the Peruvian cherry. In an environment of fragile stability, margin capture will depend on perceived quality, logistical timing, and the right selection of format and channel. Additionally, we are very close to the peak season for Chilean cherry arrivals, so the market approach will be different.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com