As expected, the Chinese market for Hass avocados showed clear signs of pressure during May, with significant price fluctuations due to

Volume and quality of available fruit. Below, a detailed analysis of the month's dynamics and key recommendations for exporters.

Weekly market evolution

• Week 19:

In Shanghai, prices ranged from RMB 75-90 for 4kg boxes and RMB 140-180 for 10kg boxes, with active movement of the product.

Guangzhou presented prices 6% higher, although with a slower sales pace.

• Week 20:

Prices dropped slightly to RMB 70-80 for 4kg boxes and RMB 140-160 for 10kg boxes, reflecting a decrease in the speed of movement in both markets.

• Week 21:

Market pressure intensified, with prices for 4kg boxes ranging between RMB 65-75 and 10kg boxes ranging between RMB 120-140.

Quality problems began to become more noticeable, affecting buyer confidence.

• Week 22:

The oversupply became evident, driving prices for 4 kg boxes to RMB 70-75 and 10 kg boxes to RMB 90-100. Old pallets, which failed to achieve

Due to market congestion, they were sold at discounts of 10-15%.

Export flow

The volume of departures from Peru showed a decreasing trend:

• Week 18: 112 containers.
• Week 19: 113 containers.
• Week 20: 74 containers.
• Week 21: Just 7 containers.

This contraction in shipments reflects the impact of low prices and growing caution among exporters.

Strategic recommendations for exporters

1. Prioritize quality:

As mentioned in previous articles, the Chinese market is showing increased sensitivity to the internal quality of the pulp. We have seen a rise in cases of chilling injury in recent weeks. These problems, detected in recent weeks, have generated distrust, affecting brand perception and final prices. This factor must be carefully considered, and nutritional analysis of the crop from the source is crucial to identify and correct any deficiencies, ensuring that fruit with better characteristics is shipped to China.

2. Optimize shipping times:

Avoiding shipments during periods of high demand is crucial for maintaining competitive pricing. Analyzing volume projections can help identify weeks with less market pressure.

3. Flexibility in business strategies:

Consider partnerships with importers or distributors in other destinations to diversify distribution channels and reduce the risk of saturation in a single market.

Conclusion

As expected, May 2025 was shaping up to be a month of significant adjustments in the Chinese market. Exporters' ability to adapt to current conditions and anticipate market dynamics will be key to protecting profitability and strengthening their position in this competitive market.

Market conditions in the first half of June are expected to reflect a similar outlook to that observed in weeks 21/22. Market behavior will depend largely on the performance of sales associated with the 95 containers that arrived on June 4 aboard the vessel XIN DALIAN.

Sales figures for weeks 23 and 24 will be crucial in defining the direction of the Chinese market for the remainder of the month. On a positive note, the channels of

E-commerce platforms have depleted their inventory just before the arrival of this shipment, which could boost demand for new stock. These channels have the capacity to absorb between 5 and 6 containers per day, representing an opportunity to stabilize the market.

In this context, it is essential to closely monitor sales performance during these key weeks and maintain a focus on product quality to ensure sustained movement through available sales channels.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com