The behavior of the Chinese market in March 2025 has provided key strategic lessons for Hass avocado exporters. While the month offered lucrative opportunities for those who managed to place fruit during the most profitable weeks, it also highlighted the fragility of a highly volatile market, where changes in supply can lead to abrupt price drops. Let's analyze the trends, risks, and strategies to consider for upcoming shipments.

March began with stable and relatively good prices, in line with the upward trend observed since week 11:

• Week 9: RMB 110.00 - 115.00 per 4 kg box (USD 15.10 - 15.78), RMB 260.00 - 270.00 per 10 kg box (USD 35.83 - 37.20).

• Week 10: Slight drop, RMB 105.00 - 110.00 in 4 kg boxes (USD 14.48 - 15.10), stability in 10 kg boxes (RMB 260.00 - 270.00, USD 35.83 - 37.20).

• Week 11: Start of the rebound with prices at RMB 125.00 - 145.00 in 4 kg boxes (USD 17.27 - 20.03) and RMB 320.00 - 330.00 in 10 kg boxes (USD 44.09 - 45.47).

• Week 12: Year-to-date highs, reaching RMB 160.00 - 170.00 for 4 kg boxes (USD 22.07 - 23.45) and RMB 390.00 - 400.00 for 10 kg boxes (USD 53.74 - 55.12).

• Week 13: The market started with the same prices as week 12 until the arrival of the ship XIN DALIAN with 60 containers, which caused a market shock and an abrupt drop of approximately 48% in prices. With the arrival of this ship, prices ranged between RMB 90.00 – 110.00 (USD 12.40 - 15.16), and 10 kg boxes ranged between RMB 220.00 – 290.00 (USD 30.31 - 39.96).

For the purposes of these reports, we must consider that for 4 kg boxes we are referring to sizes 20/22, and for 10 kg boxes, sizes 26/28. Likewise, Hass avocado container shipments from Peru to China were as follows: Week 9 with 76 containers, Week 10 with 81 containers, Week 11 with 11 containers, and Week 12 with 108 containers. It should be noted that the vessel Cosco Shipping Volga was scheduled to depart on Sunday, the 16th of week 11; however, it departed on Monday, the 17th of week 12, with 43 containers on board.

Key Strategies for Exporters 1. Avoid Market Saturation: March made it clear that the Chinese market is highly sensitive to volume arrivals. The 48% overnight price drop due to the arrival of 60 containers in week 13 is a reminder that oversupply can be devastating with larger arrivals. To minimize risks, it is crucial to coordinate shipments strategically and monitor cargo flows.

2. Maximize shipments during periods of high demand: Exporters who managed to place their fruit in weeks 11 and 12 obtained exceptionally high prices, even comparable to the peaks of 2023. This reinforces the importance of planning shipments aligned with windows of less competition in the market.

3. Quality control as a differentiator: Price stability in the first half of March benefited those who shipped high-quality fruit. China continues to reward consistency in presentation and freshness, so exporters with strict quality protocols can secure better prices and ensure steady demand.

4. Pay attention to internal costs: Despite good prices in March, field purchase costs in Peru remain high. This means that any further aggressive market correction could result in significant losses. Continuous analysis of FOB costs and expected margins is recommended before committing to large volumes.

5. Monitoring Chinese Demand: To date, the Chinese market has not shown strong growth in Hass avocado consumption. While government incentives and economic recovery may boost demand in the medium term, a significant shift in consumer preference is not yet evident. It is crucial to closely monitor this trend to adjust export strategies and, above all, to implement a national marketing strategy to encourage greater Hass avocado consumption in China.

Outlook for the coming months

With the first quarter of the year characterized by reasonable prices and good margins for exporters, the big question is how much longer this stability can be sustained. The arrival of increasing volumes starting in April will put pressure on the market, and those who don't plan strategically...

Their shipments, costs, and quality could face severe price corrections.

Exporters must prepare for a more competitive landscape by ensuring quality, diversifying markets, and implementing a more analytical shipping strategy. Hass avocados remain a product with great potential in China, but their success will depend on well-informed and agile business decisions in the face of market volatility.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com