July clearly reflected the growing segmentation of the Chinese Hass avocado market. The gap between premium and generic fruit widened considerably, and price pressures were compounded by intermittent shipping logistics, marked by weeks of oversupply followed by weeks of relative scarcity. In this context, quality and positioning strategy were the differentiating factors that determined profit margins—or losses—for many exporters.

Weekly Market Behavior

Week 26

Prices for 4 kg (cal. 20/22): RMB 60 – 80 Prices for 10 kg (cal. 26/28): RMB 130 – 140 Containers shipped from Peru: 13

The market showed signs of congestion this week, with a clear division between high-quality fruit (up to RMB 80 for premium fruit in branded boxes) and good-quality fruit in generic boxes that barely reached RMB 60. Despite the saturated context, the 10 kg format began to show better dynamics, both in terms of flow and prices.

Week 27

Prices per 4 kg: RMB 50 – 80 Prices per 10 kg: RMB 160 and expected to increase Containers: 167

A more pronounced polarization was evident: while 4 kg boxes with smooth skin and branding reached RMB 80, unbranded fruit with rough skin did not exceed RMB 50–60, even without chilling injury. The accumulation of inventory in the hands of large importers and its accelerated deterioration marked a warning point.

Week 28

Prices per 4 kg: RMB 55 – 85 Prices per 10 kg: RMB 160 – 170 Containers: 63

There was a gradual recovery in prices, driven by a shortage of high-quality fruit and a market consensus that prices would rise over the next 10–12 days. Expectations were focused on the lag between arrivals and the next Cosco shipment, although the arrival of fruit from Asia and Chara threatens to reverse this trend. Generic boxes were priced at RMB 55–65.

Week 29

Prices per 4 kg: RMB 55 – 70 (up to RMB 95 for scarce premium fruit) Prices per 10 kg: RMB 170 (peak) Containers: 60

Despite the limited availability of premium fruit, the market maintained good prices for 10 kg. Lower-quality fruit remained stable, while the few lots of superior quality attempted to position themselves above RMB 90 for 4 kg.

Week 30

Prices per 4 kg: RMB 50 – 100 Prices per 10 kg: RMB 170 Containers: 55

Prices failed to rise as projected. The main reason was the accumulated volume available, which limited price increases across all quality levels. The market structure remained fragmented:

Premium fruit (smooth skin + branded box): They reached up to RMB 95-100

Good quality with brand: average RMB 60

Generic box: RMB 50 – 55

Week 31

Prices per 4 kg: RMB 60 – 100 Prices per 10 kg: RMB 160 – 170 Containers: (to be confirmed)

The market managed to maintain high prices for premium fruit (up to RMB 100), although the average price for good quality branded boxes remained at RMB 60. This week there was a shortage of generic boxes.

Strategic Readings for the Exporter

1. Market polarization

July's performance shows a clear segmentation between premium branded fruit and generic fruit. The price difference between the two can exceed RMB 30–40 per 4 kg box. This difference demonstrates that quality, presentation, and brand are no longer optional attributes: they are essential for maintaining profit margins.

2. 10 kg format, the most resilient

In each week, 10 kg boxes showed greater stability and better prices. This is due to the decreased supply in these sizes.

3. Inventory management and shipping timing

Weeks with higher prices coincided with a decrease in the number of containers (e.g., week 26 with only 13 containers). Weeks with oversupply (such as week 27 with 167 containers) pushed prices down, especially for generic fruit. Shipping timing is once again a strategic component for profitability; the question is: How can it be projected?

4. Differentiation by quality, brand and leather

The market continues to reward fruit with smooth skin, impeccable presentation, and recognized brands. Fruit with rough skin faces difficulties, even if it is free of internal pulp damage.

5. Deteriorating inventories in the hands of large importers

A significant risk that emerged this month is the rapid deterioration of unsold inventory, even among large players. This poses a threat in the coming weeks, as these fruits, when liquidated, affect price perceptions across the rest of the market.

Conclusion: July, a month to stand out or disappear

July 2025 was a month that laid bare the fragmentation of the Chinese Hass avocado market. While premium fruit managed to maintain prices of RMB 90–100 per 4 kg box, unbranded, generic-quality fruit barely reached half that. Exporters who focused on quality, presentation, and shipping strategy were able to stay afloat; the rest competed at a loss or on the verge of it. By August, success will depend on correctly identifying opportunities, managing volumes, and maintaining quality as the hallmark. Because in a market as saturated and demanding as China's, those who fail to differentiate themselves disappear.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com