The analysis of the avocado market in China during 2024 reflects a year full of lessons and opportunities to understand the dynamics of such a unique and demanding market. A first glance reveals a striking observation: at no point during the year did the number of maritime shipments from Peru exceed 100 containers in a single week. The peak was reached in week 6, with 97 containers shipped.

During the first seven weeks of the year, shipments to China were unusually high. This behavior was driven by what happened during the same period in 2023, when prices reached peaks of RMB 180 per 4 kg box. Remembering these prices led exporters and importers to place orders in advance and accumulate containers in anticipation of a similar scenario in 2024. However, the result was the opposite: the oversupply of product led to a drop in prices. This phenomenon reminds us that the Chinese market is as dynamic as it is unpredictable, and that its behavior is profoundly influenced by climatic, consumption patterns, and economic factors.

China, as a market, presents two clearly distinct periods in terms of avocado consumption. Before June, cooler temperatures limit the consumption of frozen juices, reducing demand for the fruit and allowing the market to absorb an average of 30 containers per week at reasonable prices. In contrast, after June, with the rise in temperatures, the consumption of frozen juices increases significantly, raising the market's capacity to receive between 80 and 100 containers per week.

Later in the year, two more significant peaks occurred in the number of shipments from Peru: 87 containers in week 15 and 81 containers in week 20. Both peaks put downward pressure on prices, which fell again to an average of RMB 70 for good-quality fruit. However, from week 30 onward, maritime arrivals stabilized, and the second half of the year was characterized by consistent prices above RMB 100 until week 50.

Throughout 2024, the lowest recorded price for 4 kg boxes of good quality avocados was RMB 70, while the highest reached RMB 140. Compared to 2023, this year we did not see extreme prices such as RMB 180 or more per box. This is partly attributed to the withdrawal of some juice bar chains from the Chinese market, which reduced demand and, consequently, kept prices at more manageable levels.

The Chinese market demands excellence and strategy. On the one hand, maintaining the internal quality of the fruit is essential. This includes proper handling at every stage, from the field to the use of advanced controlled atmosphere (CA) technologies with the correct settings. On the other hand, weekly market analysis is fundamental. Understanding the optimal times to ship products, halt shipments, or negotiate with farmers allows exporters to maximize opportunities and minimize risks. Furthermore, choosing reliable shipping lines that adhere to their schedules is key in this market, a challenge that could be mitigated with the opening of the new port of Chancay and its short-travel vessels, which will begin operating in February.

Looking ahead to 2025, the future of the Chinese avocado market is full of unknowns. No one can predict exactly what will happen, but what we can do is work diligently, analyze the market week by week, and make strategic decisions based on data. A key aspect to consider this year will be the stronger entry of South Africa as a direct competitor in the premium avocado market. South Africa occupies the same window as Peru for several months, and its entry could generate unexpected changes in price and demand dynamics. This new context demands even greater attention to strategic planning, quality management, and market analysis to meet these challenges and turn them into opportunities.

With this approach, we will face any challenge that comes, always with the commitment to raise standards and contribute to the development of the avocado market in China.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com