The end of the Chinese New Year marked a turning point in the Hass avocado market in China, generating a positive price surge that became clearly noticeable in week 6. During this period, 4 kg boxes (sizes 20 and 22) of good quality reached prices between RMB 125.00 and RMB 135.00, a range that demonstrated the market's appetite for high-quality avocados. Meanwhile, 10 kg boxes (sizes 26 and 28) traded between RMB 270.00 and RMB 280.00, solidifying their position as an attractive alternative for buyers. The most notable aspect of this period was the strong presence of Peruvian avocados, while Chilean avocados had a limited presence, a factor that increased the competitiveness of Peruvian fruit in Chinese markets.

The upward trend continued in week 7, reaching its peak in February. Prices for 4 kg boxes rose to a range of RMB 140.00 to RMB 150.00, while 10 kg boxes remained stable, trading between RMB 270.00 and RMB 280.00. This behavior reflected a still-limited supply, coupled with renewed interest from importers following the holiday period. This moment represented a golden opportunity for Peruvian exporters, who were able to place their product on the market under favorable conditions, obtaining excellent prices.

However, as is often the case in dynamic markets, adjustments soon followed. In week 8, prices for 4 kg boxes experienced a slight correction, settling between RMB 135.00 and RMB 140.00. In contrast, 10 kg boxes showed a slight increase, reaching values between RMB 280.00 and RMB 290.00. This mixed performance was due to a decrease in the supply of 10 kg boxes, which generated greater demand for this specific format.

Week 9 brought a significant shift in market dynamics. Hass avocado arrivals increased considerably, leading to a substantial price decrease. Four-kilogram boxes fell to a range of RMB 110.00 to RMB 115.00, while ten-kilogram boxes settled between RMB 260.00 and RMB 270.00. This decline was a direct result of market saturation, as larger volumes of fruit began to arrive, forcing importers to lower prices to sell their inventory.

Meanwhile, shipments from Peru continued to break records during February. In week 6, 28 containers were shipped; this figure rose to 41 containers in week 7, reaching a peak in week 8 with 51 containers shipped to China. This sustained increase reflected the logistical and operational capacity of Peruvian exporters, who responded quickly to the growing demand from the Chinese market. However, this exponential growth also posed a considerable challenge: the accumulation of volumes in transit could lead to significant market saturation in the following weeks.

The launch of the fast vessel XIN DALIAN, part of Cosco's WSA5 service, is a critical element in this scenario. This vessel, capable of completing the journey in just 24 days, will arrive almost simultaneously with the containers shipped in week 8. This means that more than 80 containers could reach the Chinese market in a single week, creating significant pressure on prices and triggering the first major price correction of the year.

One worrying factor is that farmgate and past-the-market purchase prices in Peru have remained high, putting exporters at risk. If the Chinese market experiences the expected downturn, profit margins could disappear, and some exporters could even face significant losses. This situation underscores the importance of more robust strategic planning to anticipate market fluctuations and minimize the risks associated with volatility.

Compared to the same period in 2024, February 2025 was a standout month, with higher prices and greater stability at the upper end of the price range. This performance allowed exporters to capitalize on opportunities in the Chinese market, while consumers showed a willingness to pay for quality products in the short term. However, March presents a different picture. With the steady increase in fruit volumes arriving at markets, the first major price correction is expected toward the end of the month, marking a turning point in supply and demand dynamics.

For exporters, this scenario presents both a challenge and an opportunity. The key will lie in their ability to adapt to changing market conditions, implement diversification strategies, and strengthen trade relationships with their partners in China. Long-term sustainability will depend on finding a balance between production costs and the opportunities offered by an increasingly competitive and demanding market.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com