April presented significant challenges for Hass avocado exporters who bet on the Chinese market, reflecting a combination of extreme volatility, lower prices recorded during the period, and strategic opportunities for those who managed to adjust their shipments to market conditions.

Week 14: A start with contrasts

The month began with relatively stable prices: generic 4kg boxes sold for between RMB 90.00 and 95.00, while branded boxes reached RMB 100.00 to 110.00. However, the arrival of 66 containers aboard the OOCL CHENNAI on April 3rd led to a considerable drop in prices, which settled at RMB 80.00/85.00 for generic boxes and RMB 90.00/100.00 for branded boxes. 10kg boxes experienced similar declines, moving into a range of RMB 190.00 to 200.00. Exports from Peru totaled 77 containers, marking a significant supply.

Week 15: Pressure on 4 kg Boxes

As anticipated, 4 kg boxes faced significant pressure in week 15. Prices stabilized between RMB 80.00 and 90.00, but inventory saturation and quality issues began to affect even branded boxes, which showed signs of weakness. In contrast, 10 kg boxes remained relatively stable, with prices between RMB 180.00 and 200.00 thanks to more sustained demand. Peruvian exports increased to 100 containers, intensifying competition in the Chinese market.

Week 16: A sudden fall

Monday, April 14th marked a critical point with a sharp drop in prices for 4kg boxes to RMB 50.00 (Some drops could already be observed over the weekend)

Prices have fallen to these levels, a level not seen since 2023 for good quality fruit. This collapse was caused by the decision of well-known brands to reduce their prices due to slow inventory turnover, generating a domino effect throughout the market.

The containers aboard the COSCO SHIPPING VOLGA and TINA I vessels, which arrived this week, encountered a depressed market, with prices for 10 kg boxes fluctuating between RMB 150.00 and 160.00, although some prices as low as RMB 120.00/130.00 were recorded. Peruvian exports totaled 84 containers, further exacerbating market saturation.

Week 17: A Temporary Respite

Despite the discouraging outlook, week 17 brought a brief respite. Four-kilogram boxes of 20 and 22 gauge tobacco traded at RMB 80.00, while premium brands achieved sales of up to RMB 110.00, averaging RMB 100.00. Ten-kilogram boxes saw a recovery, reaching prices between RMB 200.00 and 220.00, especially in lower-volume, more volatile markets like Guangzhou. However, shipments from Peru were minimal, with only one container. This is because the frequent blank sailings on the Chancay route prevent exporters from accurately forecasting weekly shipments.

Week 18: A slow week

The end of the month was marked by the five-day Labor Day holiday break, which significantly slowed sales. Despite this, prices

For good quality fruit, prices remained at acceptable levels: RMB 100.00/110.00 for 4 kg boxes and RMB 200.00/220.00 for 10 kg boxes.

Final analysis: Lessons from April for exporters

The performance of the Chinese market in April underscores an inescapable truth: volatility remains the norm. While there were opportunities to capitalize on high prices in specific weeks, the sharp declines demonstrated that oversupply can quickly destabilize market equilibrium.

For exporters, the key lies in strategy:

• Quality above all: Branded boxes with high-quality fruit continue to command better prices, even during downturns.

• Volume control: Avoiding oversupply is essential to maintaining price stability.

• Constant monitoring: Anticipating arrival trends and adjusting shipments can mean the difference between losses and profits. This variable is more complicated today due to blank sailings on the route via Chancay, which prevents exporters from making a clear forecast of how many containers they will ship through this port.

Outlook for May 2025

A record drop in Chinese market prices is anticipated for May, specifically during weeks 19 and 20. This is due to the early arrival of several shipments, which could result in a massive influx of 231 containers within a single week, based on the estimated time of arrival (ETA) announced to date. This scenario will generate significant market pressure and a substantial price reduction. In this context, exporters planning shipments for May are advised to proceed with caution, prioritize product quality, and carefully manage shipping costs, especially for fruit from aggregating exporters. Furthermore, it should be noted that some companies with large volumes of Hass avocados have not yet begun aggressively competing in the market, which will undoubtedly intensify competition and impact market prices.

Ạndré Vargas Global Procurement Manager South American Express Co Commercial Director at Fruwer Produce LLC avargas@fruwer.com