Despite the challenges posed by water restrictions, the avocado harvest in Olmos continues to progress favorably. The La Niña phenomenon, affecting northern Peru, has brought a considerable decrease in rainfall in the Andes Mountains, exacerbating the water situation due to the silting up of the Limón Dam. However, the agribusinesses that invested in the region were not caught off guard. Foresight and planning have proven crucial in these times of crisis: drilling wells and building reservoirs has been the formula for guaranteeing the necessary supply and keeping production afloat.

While this scenario is encouraging in the short term, it should lead us to a deeper reflection on how future irrigation projects are being planned. The lessons of Olmos should serve as a warning. In a country where water scarcity can become a latent threat to agricultural production, it is not enough to implement large-scale projects if they are not accompanied by adequate water infrastructure. Dams or reservoirs must be a central component of any new project. And it is not simply a matter of building for the sake of building; it is essential that these infrastructures be technically designed, far from riverbeds, to prevent sedimentation and guarantee their longevity and effectiveness.

While the current avocado season in Olmos is benefiting from abundant flowering, aided by cooler temperatures, not everything is perfect. The trees, weakened by a hot winter in 2023, are still recovering, and although flowering is encouraging, it has arrived somewhat late. This situation could have direct implications for the harvest, as there is a possibility of overlap with the harvest in fields further south. If this occurs, increased volumes in 2024 compared to 2023 could put downward pressure on prices, affecting both growers and the industry as a whole.

The 2024/25 season is shaping up to be an orderly one, with the trees slowly recovering their productive capacity—a process that in northern Peru could take a couple of years. But climate uncertainties, coupled with market pressures, offer a clear warning: the sustainability of our agro-industrial production will increasingly depend on responsible and forward-thinking water management. Ignoring this reality would not only jeopardize investments but also the country's ability to remain a leader in the export of high-quality agricultural products.

To continue developing a competitive and sustainable agricultural model, it is imperative that future investments in irrigation consider not only water availability but also the implementation of measures to mitigate the effects of climate phenomena such as La Niña. Securing the future of our crops cannot be left to the whims of improvised solutions; rather, it must be based on a robust, well-designed infrastructure that is resilient to climate change.

Alfredo Lira Chirif, Peru alfredo@agroleal.pro