Meanwhile, Mexico is in the last five weeks of its season, leaving 60% of its market share in the United States, opening up space for fruit from California, Peru, and Colombia.

The numbers in the Avobook W22 Report are interesting in all major markets, starting with the United States, where the main avocado suppliers have been changing their market share.

Mexico remains the king, but with a declining prominence, as has been warned in analyses for some weeks now.

At the start of its final five weeks of campaigning, its share dropped to 60%, opening up space for California, which reached a third of the market.

In fact, the numbers from the Avobook W22 Report show that inventories of Mexican fruit have decreased by 16%, which is a sign that it is already losing relevance, with a tendency to become comparable to the Californian product.

But this is an expected situation, since it is known that Michoacán is - to use soccer jargon - "in stoppage time", as it has 95,000 tons of fruit left to ship, with shipments projected to average no more than 19,000 tons per week.

And here's an interesting fact: California is showing an attractive performance compared to 2023, as it currently has a 10% annual share of this market, which is 2% higher than how its performance ended last year.

Colombia and Peru are gaining ground on supermarket shelves, despite a slight decrease in their shipments, with 4% and 3% market share, respectively. Peruvian avocados had been arriving in strong volumes, so the 30% weekly reduction in shipments reflects a normalization of their numbers in the North American market.

Prices remained stable. The .48 caliber—used as a benchmark—has fluctuated between $47 and $49 per 25-pound box over the past five weeks.

But beware, memory is short and it's good to delve into the data: according to 2023 records, prices skyrocketed in mid-June, even doubling in some cases, so we need to be vigilant in case that scenario repeats itself.

Europe with less avocado as the heat arrives

The week in Europe could be summed up in one sentence: “There are fewer avocados.” This is in comparison to previous reports. All origins saw a decline, although South Africa is gaining prominence, with a presence that now covers a third of the market.

This doesn't dethrone Peru, which remains in first place, but with a significant decrease compared to the previous week, with about a hundred fewer containers. And a rebound isn't expected, as the data clearly shows: two weeks ago, Peru shipped 914 containers; then 617; and down to 337 this week.

Kenya is part of what was received in the old continent, with a 5.5% participation; surpassing Colombia (4%).

Despite the shortage due to the overall decrease in arrivals, this hasn't led to an upward impact on prices. This could be because Europe has entered its warmer months, when demand increases for fresh summer fruit, such as watermelons, berries, and strawberries, which are emerging as an alternative to avocados. However, this situation is not considered permanent.

This week, prices for medium and small sizes decreased, while large sizes remained almost unchanged in the port area of Holland, both for avocados from Peru and South Africa, which are the ones that set the standard.

The only country that breaks this trend is Spain, where the opposite phenomenon occurs: prices for small and medium sizes increased, while prices for larger sizes decreased, at least in FOT (“Free on Truck”) transactions.

China shows lower prices, but better than last year

The Avobook W22 Report continues to show that China is a very particular market: this week it shows a slight downward trend in fruit arrivals, with 43 containers, compared to 46 the previous week. This should recover in the next report, with a projected 46 containers; and even more so in week 24, when 82 are expected.