This week marks a turning point in the markets. After Easter, we begin to see certain movements that, according to historical analysis, tend to repeat themselves. However, since the only constant is change, let's see what the future holds for our beloved #AvocadosFromColombia.

Regarding the market, our continental neighbor (the U.S.) accounts for over 60% of Colombian exports. According to Avobook, as of the latest update in week 13, Colombia holds approximately 6% of that market. In Europe, as of 2025, that share is projected to reach 12%.

The US market has shown good momentum. Volumes are expected to increase by May 5th, although some reports indicate that demand hasn't fully recovered and inventories remain. Logistics have experienced some delays and inspections by the USDA, and there is still uncertainty regarding how tariffs will be settled. Furthermore, some importers are lowering prices for Colombian sizes, especially 84s (the most affected) and 70s.

The packing plants have been increasing their production levels.

In Europe, prices remain relatively high for this time of year. However, fears surrounding the arrival of the Peruvian oil wave are fueling speculation and could push the market toward a downward correction.

In Colombia, farmgate prices have remained stable, with a slight decrease. Sizes are increasing in volume, and exporters continue to demonstrate creativity in their purchasing and payment strategies, even with the entry of new players making significantly higher offers than usual. We will see how this phenomenon develops.

The weather has begun to warm up, with a drier Holy Week, although some areas have reported new rains that affect the crops corresponding to Easter week.

Several trends stand out: on the one hand, the dollar is trending downward; on the other, the euro is rising. And amidst all this, the big question remains: are the transport logistics and packing facilities truly prepared to handle the export volumes that domestic production is reaching?

Jorge Molina Duque, Operations Manager, Quality Studio CO, jorge.molina@qualitystudio.cl , Colombia