Week 26 brings an interesting outlook for the Colombian avocado market, showing how the main export markets are gaining momentum. We observe a clear trend: 40% of Colombian avocado shipments are destined for Europe, while the remainder goes to the United States. This distribution reflects a continued and stable preference for Colombian avocados in these key markets.

Colombia maintains a 10% share of the North American market, a significant figure considering the competition from other major producers. However, the situation on the Texas border shows an 11% drop in benchmark prices for Mexican avocados (size 48) compared to the previous week. This could open up opportunities for Colombian avocados if exporters can strategically position their product. On the other hand, in developed countries, benchmark prices for size 20 have experienced an approximate 7% increase. This price rise could be a positive sign for Colombian exporters, as it could translate into higher profit margins if they manage to meet this demand with high-quality products.

In contrast, July looks promising, but fruit availability will be limited. According to Corpohass and the main exporters, a 15% week-over-week reduction is expected. This decrease is concerning, but also predictable given the natural production cycle.

The fruit supply currently comes mainly from transitional zones such as Sonsón, Abejorral, and Huila. Huila, in particular, is distinguished by its unique negotiation methods and a wide range of specifications for the type of fruit offered. Most of the fruit (60%) is medium-sized, while the remainder is distributed between large and small sizes.

Smaller sizes from the lowlands of Tolima are currently setting the trend, but larger sizes are expected in September and October. This evolution will be crucial in determining the balance between supply and demand in international markets.

The major exporters appear poised to seamlessly integrate the off-season harvest with the main season, which could guarantee a continuous and stable supply of fruit. However, small and medium-sized exporters will need to offer competitive purchasing terms to ensure they can supply the market and maintain their presence.

One factor to consider is the arrival of the La Niña phenomenon, which always brings its own challenges. This year, a 20% increase in flowering volume is expected, which could impact both the supply and quality of the available fruit. Finally, the appointment of Martha Carvajalino as the new Minister of Agriculture could bring changes to policies and support for the agricultural sector, which will be crucial for addressing the challenges and capitalizing on opportunities in the avocado market.