Top news stories of the week

– The California Avocado Commission (CAC) released its pre-season 2026 harvest estimate and weekly harvest projections (based on a projected production of 330 million pounds).

– The USDA AMS (Los Angeles Terminal, HC_FV010, January 20, 2026) reported that prices for Hass avocados from Mexico in 2-layer boxes remain stable or slightly firmer in key sizes.

– The USDA AMS National Retail Price Report (week ending January 17, 2026) reported that advertised avocado prices were higher compared to the same week last year.

– Calavo/Mission Transaction: Mission Produce has agreed to acquire Calavo Growers in a cash-and-stock deal (expected to close by the end of August 2026, subject to approvals). Good news: Projected annual cost synergies of approximately $25 million and a larger, more diversified, year-round platform. Bad news: Consolidation could mean fewer major buyers and handlers competing for fruit.

– Weather in the Oxnard area: scattered morning fog and mostly mild temperatures; risk of scattered showers on Thursday before drier conditions return.

Market conditions

Mexico continues to set the daily base in January, especially for sizes that retailers can more easily promote. California's volume remains low at the start of the season, so the short-term market tends to react more to Mexico's promotional stance and distribution pace than to California's field conditions alone.

For growers, the key decision remains timing: if the fruit is early in size and ripe, harvesting before a heavy promotional wave can protect yields. If it's short in size or ripe, waiting for a more favorable size curve is usually the best option, even if harvest estimates suggest a larger season.

California Pre-Season Harvest and Production Outlook (CAC)

The CAC projection is a planning tool for the industry, not an instruction on the "best time to harvest." Use the weekly curve as a market pressure map and combine it with your maturity and size profile.

– If Peru accelerates in late spring/early summer (and overlaps with California's heavier window), the early-season size story matters even more: growers with earlier, marketable, ripe fruit usually have the best leverage.

– Follow Mexico’s promotional push towards the NFL playoffs and the week before the Super Bowl (February 8) for clues about short-term demand and pricing tone.

Notes on the weather and the garden (Ventura/Oxnard area)

– Dispersed morning fog can tighten harvest time and increase the risk of fruit handling: plan for slower starts and later loading.

– The risk of scattered showers on Thursday could create short-term soil moisture; drier and sunnier conditions are expected over the weekend into early next week.

– Mild maximum temperatures (low to mid-60°F) support steady fruit development; be on the lookout for softer soils in low-lying areas and monitor wind exposure when scheduling crews.

What we are closely monitoring

– Retail demand up to the promotions at the beginning of February: Will demand change enough to boost larger fruit, or will 48/60 sizes continue to be the main drivers?

– Mexico volume: any acceleration (or deceleration) will be reflected first in terminal prices and advertising activity.

– The early California surge: the first significant volume increases – and the size curve they bring – will matter more than the pre-season estimate.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com