Every year around this time, California quietly withdraws from the market. Very little harvest. Insignificant volume. No impact on the weekly supply figures. And when that happens, something important changes in the avocado market: The brake is released.

When California is present, it naturally brings discipline. Californian producers don't chase volume at any cost. When prices don't make sense, the fruit stays on the tree. This behavior acts as a stabilizer: it moderates price fluctuations, sustains value, and forces the market to respond to economic logic rather than impulse.

When California disappears, the market loses that counterbalance.

Overseas imports become the sole driving force. Mexico, along with other origins, aggressively meets demand. If prices rise, volume responds quickly. If prices fall, the reaction is usually more fruit, not less. Without a natural regulatory mechanism, the market becomes more reactive and volatile.

Retail behavior also changes. Shoppers become accustomed to the pricing structures of external suppliers. Promotions are built around availability rather than value. Sizing discipline is relaxed, and the narrative surrounding origin is diluted. Over time, the market adjusts to a lower benchmark—not because quality has declined, but because supply lacks a built-in brake.

This becomes relevant when California returns.

Every spring, Californian fruit re-enters a market that has been operating at full capacity for months. Price expectations are compressed. Buyers have grown accustomed to abundance. The story of value must be rebuilt, often from scratch, even as quality and the consumer experience improve significantly.

California's role in the avocado industry has never been to dominate volume. It has always been to provide balance. When it's in the market, it forces supply to behave. When it's not, the system depends entirely on external production—and the fluctuations widen.

As we move into the winter months, it's worth remembering that the absence of California doesn't just change the origin of avocados. It changes the way the entire market works. 

California doesn't just provide avocados; it provides balance. And the market always notices when that's lacking.

Gary Clevenger
Freska Produce International, LLC
gary@freskaproduce.com