California's avocado season is beginning to show its first signs of activity, as the harvest continues to slowly increase across the state. For the week ending March 13, California growers harvested approximately 2.8 million pounds, marking another incremental step in the process of preparing for the heart of the season.

Although 2.8 million pounds remains a modest volume compared to peak harvest weeks, it reflects a steady increase in movement as growers assess maturity levels, market signals, and fruit sizes. As is typical at this time of year, harvesting activity remains uneven across districts: some growers are testing the market, while others are waiting for more favorable conditions or larger sizes before committing significant volumes.

At the same time, shipments from Mexico to the United States surged last week, with nearly 2,000 trucks crossing the border, representing an increase of almost 40% over the previous week. Under normal circumstances, such a sharp increase in imports would put downward pressure on prices. However, in this case—unusual but not unprecedented—the market strengthened slightly in several size categories, with .60 calibers gaining popularity.

This type of movement underscores an important dynamic in the avocado business: volume alone does not dictate price. Market behavior is typically influenced by a broader set of factors, including retail demand, promotional activity, inventory levels in the supply chain, and the timing of supply transitions between origins.

In this case, the market appears to be absorbing the increased Mexican volume reasonably well. Retail demand remains stable, and the trade is actively preparing for the seasonal shift from a Mexican-dominated supply to the gradual introduction of California fruit.

For Californian growers, this presents a typical early-season dilemma. On the one hand, prices are nowhere near the levels seen at this time last year, naturally leading to caution among those who prefer to wait for better returns. On the other hand, the first signs of a growing harvest are beginning to appear, and many growers recognize that getting fruit to market early can help establish a presence before larger volumes arrive in the spring.

As a result, we are seeing a measured increase in harvest decisions, although the state is still several weeks away from reaching its full pace. Historically, the harvest in California doesn't really pick up speed until late March and April, when the Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Diego districts begin contributing larger volumes.

Each season brings its own unique market conditions. Weather patterns, competing origins, retail promotion cycles, and total supply all play a role in how the market develops. Comparing one season directly to another can be misleading; each year tells its own story.

Early signs for 2026 suggest a gradual and controlled start, with growers carefully monitoring the market as volumes increase. If demand remains steady and Mexican volumes stabilize, California fruit should find its place in the market as the season progresses.

For now, the industry is in what can best be described as the "early stages" of the avocado season in California. The true pace of the harvest—and the real direction of the market—will become clearer in the coming weeks as the crop begins to reach full maturity.

More information will come as the California season continues to evolve.