Perhaps we are experiencing one of the most atypical seasons in the recent history of avocado trade between Peru and Europe. We are used to the overvolume of fruit sent to different European markets, during a peak of no less than 10 weeks in the European summer, which would end up depressing prices considerably. However, this season has been a season of high prices not only for large sizes but surprisingly for medium and small ones as well.

One might think that due to the reduction in size at origin, much of the merchandise would be concentrated in central or small sizes, but the size structure coming out of Peru has undoubtedly been what has helped the market to be in a wonderful balance so that prices have been maintained week after week, with the only exception of an excess of small sizes in a certain part of the season coinciding with the end of some productive areas.

One might also think that the lack of fruit size would cause a drastic drop in final volume in Europe—24,168 containers were exported worldwide in 2023, 15,053 to Europe that same year, up to week 42 of the season. However, the entry of young orchards into production and an increase in fruit size at the end of the season have meant that, compared to week 30 of the season, we are above the 2023 figures: 12,740 containers for Europe in 2024 versus 10,701 in the same week of 2023. Although in 2023 we had a very strong end to the season, something we won't see this season. This doesn't mean that many exporters haven't had lower yields per hectare, nor that the final number won't be lower than last year, but it certainly won't be as significant a drop in volume as was predicted for some time.

The reasoning behind the size splits of previous years versus this year and the distribution of shipments with heavy loads in the months of March and April would not be understood without the price variable. On the same date in different years, we have prices for 12-14-16 in 2023 between 6 and 7 euros per box and in the following year 11-12 euros per box, with a similar relationship in the rest of the sizes.

In short, the distribution of sizes, the avoidance of market overload, and the good quality parameters are allowing us to have a record-breaking season in terms of price.